The draw for the Last 16 of the Champions League takes place on Monday, with Manchester United one of the sides waiting to find out who they’ll face in their first knockout tie,
At this stage of the competition, sides who won their group will face a runner-up from another group and vice versa.
It’s important to note that teams can not be drawn against a side from their own country, nor can they be drawn against a side who they faced in the group stages.
What that means is that, unlike in the FA Cup draw where the chances of drawing any team are equal, the probability of facing certain clubs in the draw is actually weighted.
So, we know that Man United will face either Bayern Munich, Juventus, Porto, Real Madrid, Sevilla or Shakhtar Donetsk but what is the probability of being drawn against each club?
The most likely draws for United are against Juventus, Real Madrid or Sevilla. There is a 18.3% chance of being drawn against each of these clubs.
The next most likely draw is against Shakhtar; there is a 15.3% chance United facing the Ukrainians in the Last 16.
The two least likely draws are with Bayern Munich and Porto. There’s a 14.8% chance of Man United facing either in the Last 16.
So, the numbers say that United are likely to be heading to Madrid, Seville or Turin in February. We’ll find out if that’s the case on Monday!