Manchester United’s win over Middlesbrough at the Riverside on Sunday finally took them out of sixth place in the Premier League – and the Red Devils are now just four points behind fourth-placed Liverpool, with two games in hand.
So just how many points should be the target for the Red Devils? Obviously, every team will want maximum points from their remaining fixtures, but it’d be good to know what the aim is, in a more realistic sense.
Similarly to how relegation-threatened teams aim to reach the 40-point mark, we’ve taken a look at what United’s top four boundary should be – below, you will find the top four in the league from the last ten seasons, and we have averaged the points required over those seasons to reach a figure for this term.
2006/07
Points required: 61
Arsenal finished fourth in 2006/07, one year after defeat by Barcelona in the Champions League final. They gathered a total of 68 points in their securing of Champions League football, but only needed 61, with Tottenham Hotspur having finished the season with a total of 60 points.
2007/08
Points required: 66
In United’s double-winning season of 2007/08, the bar was slightly higher than in the previous year, with Everton pushing hard for a top four spot – and Aston Villa also right up there! Liverpool gained 76 points over the season to finish fourth, but with fifth place sitting on 65 points, 66 would have done the trick.
2008/09
Points required: 64
The 2008/09 season saw United win their third consecutive Premier League title, holding off very strong Chelsea and Liverpool sides, who put considerable distance between themselves and fourth-placed Arsenal.
Everton were again the closest challengers for fourth place, but managed only 63 points, which saw them finish nine points off the pace for Champions League football.
2009/10
Points required: 68
Finally wrestling the trophy away from Old Trafford, Chelsea finished top of the tree by a single point in 2009/10. That season finished with a resurgent Tottenham Hotspur finishing fourth and Manchester City coming in behind them, just three points away from the top four.
2010/11
Points required: 63
The conclusion of the 2010/11 season saw United reclaim their title and the number of points required for fourth spot fell back down to 63, with Arsenal beating Spurs to it once again. The Gunners finished the season in terrible form, but managed to hold on to their grasp on Champions League football once more.
2011/12
Points required: 66
Let’s not talk about what happened at the top of the table in 2011/12; the battle for fourth is more interesting anyway.
Newcastle United, guided by Alan Pardew, pushed hard for a Champions League spot – but losses in their final two games meant Spurs clung on, sealing their season with a win over Fulham on the final day.
2012/13
Points required: 73
Sir Alex Ferguson’s last season as Manchester United manager was a great success, with the Red Devils winning the league by a comfy 11 points.
It was one of the closest seasons we have ever seen for a top four spot, with Arsenal clinching it by a point, and only finishing behind third-placed Chelsea by two points.
2013/14
Points required: 73
The title once again went to Manchester City in 2013, with Manchester United unprecedentedly stuttering to a 7th-placed finish under the charge of David Moyes, who was relieved of his duties before the season’s end.
Everton brought themselves back into the European mix without Moyes at the helm, but again it was Arsenal who managed to occupy the fourth spot in the Premier League.
2014/15
Points required: 65
Whilst Chelsea were busy winning the league under Jose Mourinho, Manchester United were rebuilding, and Louis van Gaal guided them back into the Champions League places in his first season in charge at Old Trafford.
Spurs were United’s closest challengers, but fell short of the mark despite winning their final two games of the season.
2015/16
Points required: 66
Everyone knows the story of Leicester’s remarkable Premier League title win in 2015-16; and because of the magnitude of this, nobody seems to acknowledge the heartbreak of the race for top four – which United lost on goal difference to… Manchester City, of course.
So how many does this average out to?
The average points required to reach the top 4 over the last ten seasons is 66.5 – so we can round this up to 67 points.
Can United reach 67 points?
United are currently on 52 points, with 11 games still to play. This means that Jose Mourinho’s men need 15 points from a possible 33 – which is definitely possible.
Where are the points most likely to come from?
Here is United’s remaining fixture list:
- West Brom (H)
- Everton (H)
- Sunderland (A)
- Chelsea (H)
- Burnley (A)
- Man City (A)
- Swansea (H)
- Arsenal (A)
- Spurs (A)
- Palace (H)
- Southampton (A – Date TBC)
If United pick up all three points against West Brom, Everton, Sunderland, Swansea and Palace – the games where a win will be fully expected – they will gain 15 points… which would, as mentioned above, take them to 67 points.
Draws can allowed for against Burnley, who are strong at Turf Moor and Southampton, who are a stubborn outfit. These results would put United on 69 points.
Picking up a result against Arsenal will be the most crucial out of the fixtures that leaves, with Wenger’s men also battling to finish fourth.
My prediction
United will beat West Brom, Everton, Sunderland, Burnley, City, Swansea and Palace.
They will draw with Arsenal, Spurs and Southampton.
They will lose to Chelsea, because that game is sandwiched between home and away games with Anderlecht.
United will finish with 76 points.
This is more points than has been required to reach the top 4 in any of the last ten Premier League seasons.
