Six months ago, Manchester United were stuck in no man’s land. Ruben Amorim had just been sacked with the club sitting sixth, a full 17 points behind Arsenal, and most fans had already checked out of the season.
Then Michael Carrick came back through the door at Old Trafford, and things turned around quickly. A 3-0 win at Brighton on the final day locked up third place, Champions League football was sorted, and the whole mood around United changed overnight. But there’s a massive difference between finishing third and actually winning the league, and the 2026/27 season will show us whether Carrick’s run was the start of something real or just a purple patch.
The squad looks better than it has in years, the summer signings have been smart, and Carrick will get his first full pre-season to properly shape the team. Here’s where things stand and what United still need to get right.
How Bad It Got Under Amorim
It’s easy to forget how much of a mess things were before Carrick took over. Amorim kept forcing a three-at-the-back system that never worked with the players he had, and his public rows with the board made it obvious he wasn’t going to last. By the time he got the sack in early January, United had picked up just 1.55 points per game across 20 league matches. They were a long way off the top four and drifting in the wrong direction.
Carrick walked in on 13 January and the difference was almost instant. He switched to a back four, got the team playing more direct, attacking football, and suddenly the players looked like they actually wanted to be out there. He won 12 of his 17 league games, averaging 2.29 points per game. If you stretch that over a full season, it works out to around 87 points, which would’ve beaten Arsenal’s title-winning total of 85. It’s a small sample size, obviously. But it’s a pretty hard one to argue with.
The Summer Business Looks Sharp
Carrick’s been smart in the transfer window. Andrey Santos came in from Chelsea for around £50m and looked sharp in pre-season, bringing the kind of ball-carrying, all-round midfield quality United have been crying out for. Youri Tielemans followed from Aston Villa after United triggered his £35m release clause, and at 29, he’s a proven Premier League midfielder who can pick apart defences with his range of passing.
Benjamin Sesko will also be a different player with a full pre-season under his belt. He joined last summer under Amorim but kept getting shoehorned into a system that didn’t suit him. Under Carrick, he looked far more threatening, splitting the goalscoring duties with Bryan Mbeumo and Matheus Cunha. If Carrick can get a full season out of that front three firing together, there’ll be no shortage of goals.
Then there’s Bruno Fernandes. His 21 assists last season broke the all-time Premier League single-season record, and United’s attack runs through him completely. He turns 32 in September, though, and the Champions League will add a lot of miles to his legs. If Bruno drops off even slightly, it could drag the whole thing down.
Where United Sit in the Title Picture
The bookmakers have Arsenal as 6/4 favourites to retain the league. Manchester City are around 5/2 as they adjust to life without Pep Guardiola. United sit at roughly 13/2, fourth in the betting behind Liverpool. That price makes sense when you consider that, for all Carrick’s progress, this squad still finished 14 points behind Arsenal last season and the gap in depth is obvious.
Running a double campaign across the Champions League and the Premier League will test Carrick’s squad in ways last season simply didn’t. United got knocked out of both domestic cups early, which meant Carrick had zero midweek distractions during his entire run. That won’t happen again.
With plenty of questions around whether United can keep up that form across a packed fixture list, the early weeks of the season will draw heavy attention from bookmakers and punters alike.
The title ante-post market always moves fastest in August and September, and the volume of football free bets around opening weekend tells you how much money is already circling the new season. United open at Hull City on 22 August, and while it looks comfortable enough on paper, newly promoted sides buzzing off the energy of a first home game back in the Premier League are never easy to beat.
Title Challenge or Consolidation Year?
The honest answer is probably a bit of both. United have the manager, the attacking talent, and the momentum to push deep into the top three again. But the gap to Arsenal and City is real, and the Champions League will stretch a squad that still has weak spots. A proper title challenge would need everything to click from the very first week, and in football, that almost never happens.
What Carrick can do is turn United into genuine contenders who are clearly building towards a real crack at it in the next couple of years. If he finishes the season within touching distance of the top two and gets into the knockout rounds in Europe, that’s a huge step forward. And if results go his way early on, don’t be surprised if those 13/2 odds start tumbling fast.
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